What has happened down here is the wind have changed
Clouds roll in from the north and it started to rain — Randy Newman, Louisiana from the LP Good Old Boys (1974)
While I still think McCain (my 2nd prediction if Rudy did not get it, from more than a year ago) I have got to say, before all the votes are counted from Tuesday, that something in the wind has changed on the Dem side.
I’m willing to say that, barring a brokered convention where the Clintons strong-arm the super-delegates, Barack Obama will win the Dem nomination. And, he may be hard to beat in November. There’s just something about a young, hopeful guy against the crotchety old man, I don’t see how the Republicans beat him, inexperience and all. I have to admit I feel it would be a bit exciting to have him president, although I disagree with him on almost every substantial issue (other than immigration, gay rights and abortion).
Romney, on the other hand, no matter what the McCain haters say, will lose to either one. I see absolutely no scenario where Romney could pick up enough Independent votes to win, and the ABM haters, I think, know this but, like LImbaugh admits, would rather a Dem win than McCain.
Romney is too much a stereo-typical slick politician to ever ’strike a chord’ with the electorate.
Barring a big Hillary comeback (which, reading a few articles today, is all but mathematically impossible) Dems are headed toward a brokered convention and either a very bitter Clinton faction or a very bitter black electorate. I think dissing Clinton is the less risky path now, which is why I’m willing to say I was wrong and Hillary will be disposed of, and if she is, its the end of the Clintons forever as a national power.
It might be worth a neophyte like Obama winning the presidency to be rid of them.
Any other scenario than Romney being nominated and/or elected is good for me. Only Ron Paul would be a worse disaster for both the Republicans and the country. The way his supporters have been acting this past week only reinforces that. I long to rub their noses in a McCain victory and let them sit home in November and prove their impotence when McCain beats Hillary without them.
Good article by Chris Bowers at OpenLeft that shows the arithmetic: if trends hold, its nearly impossible for either Dem candidate to get the 2k+ delegates needed to win going into the convention.
While a brokered convention is seen as being in Hillary’s favor now, that may change if the electorate proves decisively that Obama is the favored candidate.
That would be the finest revenge. “The Base” are freaking out about Huckabee “helping” McCain, and you know what, fuck the base. I’ve had it up to here with the base. The base are lock-step, dogmatic, doctrinaire reactionaries who take their marching orders from Rush Limbaugh. Fuck them eternally. I detest the base and find myself in disagreement with them on so more issues than I agree.
Reading the leftblogs tonight, they are bullish on Obama, (which is in character for the leftwingnuts) but they have the numbers and scenaria to back it up:
Open Left’s Matt Stoller thinks the pressure is actually on HRC, not Obama: “Clinton raised $10M in January, not a small amount. But Obama raised $32M, with a good amount of that coming in over the internet from small dollar donors. He can and will continue to raise money from these people. If Obama does well on Super Tuesday, he will set himself up for a delegate lead later in the month because of a slew of favorable states, and he will end up drying up Clinton’s money. Clinton donors gave because they saw her as inevitable, but if she doesn’t take the majority of delegates on Tuesday it’s going to be tough to close what is clearly a widening money gap.”
MyDD’s Jonathan Singer agrees: “If [HRC] is able put Obama away by taking a significant delegate lead tomorrow — one that couldn’t be whittled away during the subsequent February nominating contests, which seem to generally favor Obama — she might be able to end the nomination battle a lot sooner than many currently believe. However, I believe that Markos is totally spot on when he writes today that if Clinton is unable to bank enough delegates tomorrow she could find herself in some long-term difficulties because of a possibly massive fundraising disadvantage.”