One of the side-shows that no one thought would be a factor was the moving up of the Michigan and Florida primaries, and the fact that those delegates would not be seated. Only Hillary!, who had a large national lead then, chose to do some oblique campaigning in either, after agreeing she would not (but after losing Iowa and SC big and needing some wins somehow)
Only Hillary! was even on the ballot in Michigan. How she can argue that its fair to count those votes and delegates is beyond our poor power to ken.
Over at Dan Riehl, he’s talking about the Florida and Michigan delegates, and the ramifications if they are allowed to be counted and put Hillary! over the top:
The question shouldn’t be, is it a good idea for Hillary to try and get the delegates seated. Without a close contest, I doubt there was ever any question that they eventually would be. The proper question now is, what is that idiot Dean going to propose to ensure some form of representation for the two states that is also fair to both candidates?
The DNC already blew it once. It’ll be interesting to see if they do it, again, somehow. As far as I’m concerned, I wouldn’t bet on Howard Dean to get anything right. As the most prominent figure to ever gain some amount of clout as a result of the Netroots movement, he continues to prove more an embarrassment, than he does an asset for the Democrats as a whole.
If they seat those delegates, then any future threats of sanctions for moving up will be impotent threats.
So what will there be to stop states from moving up, to December, to November, to friggin’ summer ’12? Nothing.
I hope they are seated for 2 reasons: one, it will rile the Obama backers into a froth, leading to a fatal party split if it awards Hillary! the nomination. For all this talk of record Democrat fund-raising, Obama bringing in an entire new electorate, the energy and enthusiasm of the Dems for their candidates and the weak support for McCain: the RCP average has McCain in a statistical tie, but a few points over both Hillary and Obama. That’s hardly a bad place to start, especially with the fore-mentioned factors.
Also, the Obamania is going to be hard to sustain for 8 more months. You can’t live that long on just hero worship and “hope”. Real policies and issues are going to intrude on all this. Also, can this level of fund-raising be sustained? It seems self-evident that many people contributing to Obama’s record funds are first-time contributors, and there is not a bottomless well of funds.
Yes, he and Hillary! are burning up a lot of Democrat money. Do all these small contributors have he cash, and the interest, 8 months down the road, continuously? Doesn’t seem likely.
And, will they actually vote? Well, it sure doesn’t look like it from the primaries so far. Hillary! is kicking Obama’s ass in big states. He wins primaries of states where the race-voting of blacks puts him over the top. Blacks vote over-whelmingly Democrat anyway. The fact he’s not only black, but has begun running AS a black is putting off whites already. Its only going to get worse. There is a HUGE group of Hillary! voters who will not vote for him. And those who will cross over for McCain.
There are about zero Republicans who will cross to a very very liberal, inexperienced, demagogic, pandering, foolish on foreign policy naif who only entered national politics 3 years ago.
Obama is tied with McCain now, before these flaws have been really pointed up, and while his supporters are still energized and fresh.
And this is before the GOP goes to work in Obama, and he’s proven to be a very thin-skinned candidate indeed when he’s not treated with the veneration and soft-ball questioning to which he has become accustomed. Also, he seems to be growing a VERY big head and belief in his own messiah-hood.
Also, it will kill the antiquated, unfair and now unworkable situation of Iowa and NH always going first. I’m fed up to the teeth with hearing about Iowans and NHers getting testy and self-righteous with the candidates and having the first say, leading to many drop-outs.
It should be a rotating regional system by lottery for actual date. There should be no Super Tuesday. It should stretch each region out by weeks in a month, North-East, South-East, West Coast, Mid-West, Mountain states, etc. each state in a region taking its turn, that way small states aren’t neglected because it will be what’s happening that week. No more than 2 primaries in a week. This would make a 25 week primary system, which is exactly what we have now, with the last primary (Puerto Rico) on July 7.
It would be manifestly fairer and more representative of the nation. Iowa and NH are despised by most of the country for their insistence on keeping their rank as first. By what God given right? Who the hell do they think they are?
I think they are out anyway, but this would seal the deal.